LGBTQ, China, Russia: Will America’s Africa Policy Change Under Next US President?

By Keith Walker (DW)

The US hasn’t made Africa a top diplomatic priority. It has lagged with investment and trade, and used the region as a battleground for power struggles with China and Russia.

Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are following a trend in the US presidential election well-known by Africans, with neither candidate making US-Africa relations a major election issue.

Neither Trump nor outgoing US President Joe Biden paid much attention to Africa during their presidencies — and neither of them visited the continent while in office, though Biden still plans to visit Angola in early December.

Cameron Hudson from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, explained that both Democrats and Republicans have pursued an Africa program that “doesn’t differ much one from the other. Africa doesn’t rank very highly in the list of US priorities.”

Moving from aid to trade

Both administrations acknowledged Africa’s importance, said Hudson, but only to a certain degree.

“It is the largest voting bloc at the United Nations, and when we cannot organize the Africans to vote in line with (the US), that undermines US interests and US prestige in the world,” he added, noting that economic interests, such as access to Africa’s precious minerals, also play a role.

Pushing China off its pedestal has been a great motivation for the US, said Hudson.

“Efforts by China to establish military bases or to obtain a monopoly over certain mineral resources in Africa will be seen as something that needs to be responded to very aggressively by whoever is in the White House,” said Hudson. “And I think that will drive many of our policies in Africa.”

Though the US remains Africa’s largest aid donor, China is the continent’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade surpassing $166.6 billion (around €155 billion) in the first half of 2024, according to Chinese state media.

“The US has been relegated in matters of economic development in Africa,” said Brian Wanyama Singoro, a political analyst in Kenya. “It has been easier for African countries to go and get aid from the East.”

During his time in office from 2017 to 2021, Trump introduced the Prosper Africa initiative to support US investors and the growing middle class across Africa, and to compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive infrastructure plan that aims to smooth trade links with dozens of countries around the world.

US troop levels in Africa fell from just over 5,000 troops in 2017 to around 1,300 by the end of Trump’s term.

If reelected, Trump has vowed to continue with his America First program and cut foreign aid.

AGOA program uses a carrot-and-stick policy

For any president, the next big task would be to renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) — a program that provides eligible countries in the region with tariff-free access to US markets — which expires at the end of 2025 and runs under the motto “trade, not aid.”

In the last four years, the Biden administration has stripped seven African countries of their AGOA eligibility “for undemocratic behavior,” said Hudson. “In the case of Uganda, it was a law that took away rights from LGBTQ communities.”

South Africa has risked suspension from AGOA for partnering with China and Russia on security. Hudson suggested both Republicans and the Democrats are “guilty” of punishing African partners “for their own social laws or their own sovereign decisions.”

He added that a Harris administration “could aggressively pursue those kinds of policies,” while a Trump administration “could aggressively pursue anti-abortion legislation and revoke family planning from development assistance projects.”

US: Ally against unrest, extremism and democratic setbacks?

A wave of coups has destabilized the Sahel region and West Africa in recent years, and the continent has been significantly affected by intra-state armed conflicts, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, an independent research institute that tracks international arms exports.

“The situation is wanting and requires urgent intervention,” said Brian Wanyama Singoro. “Africa does not have a permanent seat in the UN. That speaks volumes in terms of how Africa is viewed by developed countries. Africa has to look for solutions.”

Africa’s military juntas have turned to actors like Russia’s Wagner Group for support, while the US military had been pushed out of countries like Niger after failing to maintain relations while also denouncing the 2023 coup and pausing aid to the country.

According to Alex Vines from the UK-based think tank Chatham House, Trump could further withdraw military support.

“His vision is very transactional, it’s in a way very neo-colonial,” said Vines. “So the first question that a Trump administration would ask could be what’s our gain? Which is very different from a philanthropic kind of response that you will get from Democrats.”

‘US risks losing the African continent’

However, Hudson believes Washington has an interest in preventing Eastern military expansion.

“Whether it’s in Angola or Equatorial Guinea or Gabon, which have been in conversation with China about developing naval ports for China’s military, that is seen as a direct strategic threat to the US,” he said.

None of the experts believe the US will prioritize Africa more after the election. The focus will remain the “rivalry, in particular against China and Russia,” said Vines.

“Harris would focus on trade, but a lot on philanthropy. Trump will be a lot more mercantilist and more inward-looking. I don’t think it will be beneficial to Africa.”

Whoever wins the White House, warned Wanyama Singoro, “will have to redesign a new policy towards Africa. If they don’t do that, the US risks losing the African continent to the East.”