Anambra 2025 Guber Election: Indicators Give Soludo Victory

Today’s Anambra State governorship election will be a “one-way” contest that will produce Chukwuma Soludo (the incumbent) as the winner—as there are strong indicators in that direction.

Here are some of the factors and caveats in Soludo’s favour.

Soludo’s party, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), has a strong grip on Anambra state politics; APGA has held the governorship for many years.

Soludo himself has repeatedly stated that he sees no serious opponent in the race.

Analyses and polling data suggest he is significantly ahead of other contenders. For example, a poll cited gave him -85.7% support across the state in the 2025 contest.

He has accumulated tangible accomplishments in his first term that he has campaigned with, including—developmental projects, security initiatives, human capital development,education and others.

However, there are some caveats and factors to watch that may twist this prediction.

Even if a candidate appears dominant, elections are never guaranteed outcomes—turnout, last-minute mobilisations, opposition strategy, and election day dynamics all matter. Previous polls have shown specifically that the ground game will matter in Onitsha, Nnewi, Ihiala and Awka.

The issue of zoning is relevant. There’s an ‘unwritten rotation’ of the governorship among the three senatorial zones of Anambra (North, Central, South).

Some commentators argue all major candidates in 2025 come from the South (Soludo’s zone) which could stir concerns of fairness or backlash.

Political opposition -especially the All Progressives Congress (APC), still exists—even if currently weak—as do internal party dynamics. Overconfidence of Governor Soludo can lead to surprises.

Given all of the parameters, Soludo is heading to victory unless major ‘institutional’ changes happen, because nothing in politics is fully predetermined.

However, the indicators suggest the race is heavily tilted in his favour of true incumbent.

Below is Midwest Herald forecast for the Anambra 2025 Governorship Election, taking place today, November 8, 2025.

APGA is the dominant party statewide (Soludo/APGA won the overwhelming majority of LGAs in 2021 and is widely reported as the frontrunner in 2025). Expect APGA to try to consolidate across both urban and rural LGAs.

Key competitive pockets where APC, LP or PDP can make inroads are the major urban / industrial LGAs (Onitsha, Nnewi, Awka), some peri-urban wards with high registered-voter concentrations, and LGAs with historical swings or active opposition mobilization.

LGA strength map (21 LGAs) — best-effort classification and why:

APGA-dominant LGAs (expected to favour Soludo / APGA)

These LGAs either returned APGA in 2021 or are widely reported as APGA strongholds in the 2025 coverage:

Onitsha North — urban, large electorate; APGA strong performance historically.

Onitsha South — same as above (Onitsha is a major prize).

Nnewi North — Nnewi is APGA-friendly and high turnout area.

Nnewi South — industrial/merchant base; key for numbers.

Ihiala — decisive in 2021 (Soludo’s Ihiala win confirmed his victory in 2021); continue to watch.

Idemili North / Idemili South — APGA-friendly counties around key towns.

Awka North / Awka South — state capital area; APGA has strong organisation in parts of Awka.

Anaocha, Njikoka, Dunukofia — central Anambra LGAs with strong APGA reach.

Aguata, Ekwusigo, Oyi — important south/central LGAs APGA usually performs well in.

Anambra East / Anambra West — northern belt where APGA has presence.

Ogbaru — riverine LGA; mixed but APGA presence.

Orumba North / Orumba South, Orumba/ Umunneochi areas — rural LGAs where party networks matter.

Competitive / swing LGAs (opposition can contest strongly)

These are the LGAs where APC/LP/PDP have a better chance — either because of past swings, larger urban pockets, or active opposition campaigning:

Onitsha (both North & South) — while APGA-dominant, Onitsha’s size and commercial voters give opposition room to chip away if they mobilize.

Nnewi (North & South) — APGA strong, but opposition organisation (APC/LP) can target wards.

Awka South (Awka urban) — capital city wards often issue-based and more fluid.

Aguata (Ekwulobia area) — sizeable electorate; can be competitive with good turnout.

Ogbaru — historically mixed, flashpoints possible.

Smaller / low-impact LGAs for statewide outcome (low voter numbers or reliably one-party)

Ayamelum, Anambra West, Anambra East (some wards), Orumba North/South (rural pockets) — more predictable, lower absolute vote totals relative to Onitsha/Nnewi/Awka.

Polling units / wards to watch (high impact on result)

Rather than listing individual PU codes (INEC publishes those and they’re the best source), here are the specific urban wards & market-centre polling zones to watch on election night — these areas have high registered-voter counts, commercial populations, or have swung previously:

1. Onitsha urban wards (Ochanja market wards, Odoakpu, Ogboji areas) — big electorates; any swing here moves totals fast.
2. Nnewi central wards / Nnewi market wards — Nnewi vote returns come fast and are decisive for totals.
3. Awka (Eke Awka / Awka urban wards) — administrative capital; fast results and media attention.
4. Ihiala town wards — 2021 supplementary there decided the race; watch for turnout and results speed.
5. Ekwulobia (Aguata) urban wards — a large voting bloc in the south-central belt.
6. Ogbaru (Obosi/riverine hubs) — logistics can affect results here; watch for delays/discrepancies.